Wto Sport – Ekonom Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Eko Listiyanto memproyeksikan perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh 4,8 persen secara tahunan pada 2024.
Proyeksi Indef tersebut sedikit lebih rendah dari asumsi makro dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2024 yang sebesar 5,2 persen.
“Kalau hitung-hitungan INDEF ekonomi 2024 ini tidak setinggi dari asumsi makro, karena tantangannya cukup pelik dan banyak,” kata Eko dalam Seminar Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2024 yang dipantau di Jakarta, Rabu.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional diperkirakan melambat seiring dengan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi global akibat krisis geopolitik antara Rusia dan Ukraina serta Israel dan Palestina yang masih akan berlanjut pada 2024.
“Tapi apakah 4,8 persen itu buruk ? Bagi kita tidak terlalu buruk. Karena pertumbuhan ekonomi globalnya saja diprediksi 2,8 persen, kita hampir 2 kali level global, tidak resesi juga tapi tidak terakselerasi,” kata Eko.
Pada 2024, Eko memperkirakan daya beli masyarakat akan tertekan, pertumbuhan kredit ke sektor riil termoderasi karena pengaruh suku bunga acuan Bank Indonesia yang masih tinggi, dan windfall dari kenaikan harga komoditas akan berakhir.
Upaya mengakselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dari sisi fiskal juga dinilai tidak akan maksimal mengingat pola penyerpan anggaran yang selalu menumpuk di akhir kuartal IV.
Adapun inflasi pada 2024 diperkirakan akan mencapai 3,2 persen atau di atas asumsi makro APBN 2024 yang sebesar 2,8 persen, terutama disumbang oleh kenaikan harga volatile food.
Menurut Eko, permintaan pangan pada 2024 akan meningkat karena penyelenggaraan pemilihan umum (pemilu), sementara itu produksi pangan berisiko menurun lantaran pengaruh cuaca dan menurunnya kredit kepada pelaku usaha di sektor pangan.
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